Strategy Twin Spec

Version: v0.2 Status: Review Owners: Foundation / Cortex Last Updated: 2026-03-25 Change Type: additive Migration Required: yes Depends On: IntelligenceBrief, OpportunityCandidate, ClaimCluster Supersedes: none Superseded By: none

Purpose

Represent the evolving strategic state of an enterprise, domain, or account as a living model rather than static briefs.

Problem Statement

Foundation-V2 already has briefs, watchlists, contradictions, and opportunity candidates, but these are still mostly point-in-time artifacts. The Strategy Twin turns them into persistent strategic memory.

Ownership

• Foundation: twin state, belief updates, confidence decay, final reasoning
• Cortex: drift monitoring, proposed updates, health and quality supervision
• Frontend: twin timeline, belief history, contradiction views, operator approvals
• FMIE: supplies upstream media-derived action items and evidence where applicable

Core Concepts

• beliefs
• contradictions
• negative evidence
• open questions
• confidence decay
• temporal change log
• action dependencies
• partner hypotheses

Twin Objects

StrategyTwin

Fields: - twin_id - owner_scope - domain - active_belief_ids - open_question_ids - partner_hypothesis_ids - state_version - last_reconciled_at

BeliefRecord

Fields: - belief_id - twin_id - statement - confidence - supporting_refs - contradicting_refs - status - first_seen_at - last_reaffirmed_at

ContradictionRecord

Fields: - contradiction_id - twin_id - left_refs - right_refs - severity - resolution_state

NegativeEvidenceRecord

Fields: - negative_evidence_id - twin_id - statement - impact_on_beliefs - evidence_refs

OpenQuestion

Fields: - question_id - twin_id - question - priority - blocking_belief_ids - owner - status

ConfidenceDecayRule

Fields: - rule_id - domain - time_horizon_days - decay_curve - trigger_conditions

PartnerHypothesis

Fields: - hypothesis_id - twin_id - candidate_ids - fit_summary - confidence - blocking_questions

ChangeEvent

Fields: - event_id - twin_id - event_type - affected_objects - reason - source_refs - created_at

Required Behaviors

• update beliefs over time instead of replacing them blindly
• record what changed and why
• track unresolved questions
• reduce confidence when evidence ages or is contradicted
• incorporate negative evidence explicitly
• persist partner hypotheses alongside strategic state

Inputs

• governed intelligence briefs
• meetings and action items
• opportunity candidates
• partner-fit outputs
• external reasoning imports
• Cortex observations on drift and degradation

Telemetry

• active belief count
• contradiction count
• open-question backlog
• mean confidence by domain
• stale belief count
• partner hypothesis churn

Foundation-V2 Gap Closed

Moves Foundation from governed brief generation to a durable strategic memory model.

Open Questions

• whether twins are tenant-wide, domain-wide, or account-scoped by default
• which updates require operator review versus automatic reconciliation
• whether negative evidence can be inferred automatically from missing confirmations

Change Log

• v0.2: expanded to implementation-grade contract
• v0.1: initial seed